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Election 2024 Political Roundup

Writer's picture: Mary Huttlinger McCollumMary Huttlinger McCollum

Notes from the Political Briefing from the Cook Political Report Editor David Wasserman at NAR Legislative Conference - May 2024


Overview of political landscape


📍People and press focusing on student protests and Palestine rather than the Trump trial - which doesn’t help Biden


📍Under Obama - highly engaged voters means high turnout but now we’re seeing races won by sporadic voters especially with Trump


📍Democrats are winning at local levels because of low voter turnout - because Dems are motivated and show up and the sporadic voters only show up when Trump is on the ballot


📍However on a National level, Biden consistently trails Trump with sporadic voters (they show up and vote every few years with no consistency or pattern) These sporadic voters help Trump edge out Biden


📍POTUS Candidates motivation for running are vastly different

🔴 Trump - running to shield himself against law suits and personal liabilities

🔵 Biden - believes he has a moral obligation to stop Trump’s return to chaos and keep the country on a path back to normalcy


📍No one expected either Biden or Trump to be in these positions at this point in time


📍There are seven republicans alive that have been on a national ticket and of them only one is supporting Trump - Sarah Palin


📍 Redistricting wave where most congressional districts are no longer competitive except for a handful of seats on both coasts


House of Representatives


〰️ Currently Rs enjoy a very narrow margin of control of the House


〰️ We can expect to see between 80-90 new members in the House when creates challenges for legislating and being effective


〰️ Dems are the narrow underdogs


〰️ There is a bi-Coastal focus on races that will determine who controls the House


〰️ Voters may vote to split their ticket ie vote for an R in a house race to balance out their vote for Biden


〰️ Former Speaker McCarthy is leading a vengeance tour to recruit candidates to primary the 8 to 12 republicans that led the charge to oust him


〰️ We’re also seeing a big wave of retirements (D24 21R)


〰️ As a result of concern is the congressional Senior leadership brain drain


〰️ Most races that are solid R will be a choice between MAGA Rs and Traditional GOP


〰️ In the end roughly 22 House races will determine the control of the House


Senate


📌 Rs have a lever of power to take back the Senate - it’s literally their’s to lose


📌 The map for Ds is brutal - they are totally on defense


📌 Brown OH is VERY HIGH risk


📌 The electorate is 25% new every 4 years in NV which adds to the swing


📌 Rubin has a slight edge in AZ, Kerry Lake is a lightening rod


📌 Wildcard Senate races - MD TX UT


POTUS


🔹 Despite Trumps 4 indictments - Biden faces major headwinds (WTH)


🔹 Concerns for Biden -

  1. Unfavorability - keeping declining despite favorable economic reports

  2. Under water on handling key issues across the board (only exceptions are are abortion and saving democracy)

  3. Demographic erosion (blacks, Latinos, youth) no longer solidly committed to Dems


🔹 Biggest advantage - Biden has more money on hand while Trump bleeds R coffers dry with legal fees


🔹 We’ll start to see Biden messaging aggressively around issues that poll well in his targeted demographics


🔹 Labor Day will tell us who the winner will be in Nov, and if Biden hasn’t turned it around with messaging then Trump wins


🔹 Trump VP pick - Tim Scott from SC

Nikki Haley burned that bridge

JD Vance doesn’t close any demographic gaps

Kristi Noem’s recent book revelations about shooting her puppy quickly eliminated her in many minds


🔹 OH TX AK IA NC FL will determine the  winner


Biden needs 47-48 %

Trump only needs 43-44%


🔹 Maine and Nebraska are the only only states who issue ECV by district - everyone else is winner takes all - this unique power position could help Biden if we see a super close split of ECV. Omaha could decide POTUS - literally.


Ohio Senate Race


🔸This is considered the Dems last stand in OH - Trump won by 8 pts (both times)


🔸Moreno is still definable, who will define him (his campaign or Browns)


🔸One issue keeping Brown as a winnable race is the choice issue - provided that women and choice voters show up, whether it’s enough to win for Biden TBD



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