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Writer's pictureMary Huttlinger McCollum

Election Preview: Political Perspectives

Updated: May 9

Election Preview: Political Perspectives with Eugene Daniels and Margaret Hoover


🔥Eugene Daniels (White House Correspondent for Politico, political analyst, and Playbook co-author) and Margaret Hoover (PBS Firing Line and CNN contributor)


[Notes taken at the 2024 NAR Legislative meetings in DC]


  • Double-haters is a term that refers to the large number of voters who like neither BIDEN nor TRUMP


  • 81% of voters think Biden is too old for the job, 55% think the same of Trump


  • Favorability ratings: Biden 35% v Trump 33%


  • Of ALL ADULTS Trump leads Biden 46%-44%, but among LIKELY VOTERS Biden leads Trump 49-45


  • Even if Biden wins there’s no expectation that Trump will let it go and graciously concede, so we may see another 1-2 year delay in certifying the POTUS election results, this time around has the potential to be more emotionally charged for Americans (!)


  • Maricopa County holds over 60% of the AZ electorate and is one of the country’s largest voting jurisdictions (here is where R election officials held strong against MAGA influencers)


  • Speaker Johnson, much to everyone’s surprise, including his own, has stepped into his role and kept the fringe MAGAs at bay and moved forward critical bills in Congress


  • FYI the Speaker doesn’t have to be a MOC and we may start to hear rumblings about going this route


  • We’ll see roughly 7-10 key swing states determine the presidential outcome


  • Within these swing states there is a very small number of voters who will ultimately decide the presidential election (ranging from 1,500-10,000 voter spread in each of these districts)


  • In general people are unenthusiastic about voting which could continue the cycle of Dem sweeps seen at the local level recently


  • Possibly see a Trump VP announcement within 60 days


  • Biden needs outside validators to lift up his work like on the decriminalization of cannabis, student loan forgiveness, and abortion


  • It’s the Economy Stupid - despite solid economic numbers inflation is killing any positive goodwill for voters, they feel it everyday with the cost of daily consumables not returning to pre COVID prices


  • FL Republicans continue to out-register Dems to the tune of 900,000 voters


  • We’re seeing fewer and fewer politicians willing to call each other and their constituents out for misinformation (see McCain) this then emboldens people to perpetuate misinformation


  • The majority of under 20 yo get their info and news from TikTok and the majority of 60 yo plus get their info and news from Facebook — both of which are highly influenced by algorithms and are not subject to fact checking mechanisms


  • While competition is good when you’re dealing with news - truth and reality is key to empowering people to make sound decisions


  • We have a failure of a system to verify and validate facts


  • !!! The media needs to have a pro democracy bias, our system of govt was set up this way


  • The media has an historical obligation in our country to ensure that citizens make responsible, informed choices rather than acting out of ignorance or misinformation. We are seeing trends away from this with influence from ratings, advertisers, and media conglomerates


  • Furthermore, media displaying a pro democracy bias serves a “checking function” by ensuring that elected representatives uphold their oaths of office and carry out the wishes of those who elected them. Fox “news” isn’t doing this.


  • In the past the one thing we used to be able to agree on was facts and respectable, verifiable sources which allowed for alignment and compromise - now everyone has their own “facts expert” and sources which are unverified

  • This trend has eliminated the space for politicians to find common ground and an agreed upon baseline from which to establish policy negotiations and priorities


  • Daniel Patrick Moynihan said, "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts."


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